RFSU election analysis: Four things we can expect from Trump's presidency

– The election of Donald Trump will affect people in the US and many other countries. RFSU's partners and colleagues, particularly our US sister organisation, Planned Parenthood Federation of America, will be impacted. The same is true of virtually all organisations that receive US aid worldwide. Trump's policies will also have consequences for Swedish and EU foreign policy, says Ingela Holmertz, Secretary General of RFSU.

1. Unequal access to abortion in the US

The right to safe abortion was a key issue in the election debate. In ten states, citizens were asked to vote on new abortion laws at the same time as electing their president. In Colorado, Missouri, Arizona, Maryland, and New York, citizens chose to protect abortion rights in their state constitutions, according to TT, Sweden's largest news agency.

– The fact that several Republican states voted in favour of abortion is a positive signal for abortion rights and gives hope to many people in the US, says Kristina Castell, political advisor at RFSU.

In Florida, on the other hand, citizens voted to retain a strict abortion ban after six weeks – a limit that is set so early that most people don't even realise they are pregnant at that point. This is despite recent polls showing that 56% of voters are pro-choice.

In other words, access to safe abortion will continue to depend on where you live and how much you can afford.

– This highlights the deep and growing divide between different regions and communities in the United States. Abortion rights have become a symbol of the divide between the more conservative and religious communities and the more progressive and urban ones. Unfortunately, the consequences are more than symbolic, as abortion bans affect both individuals and the healthcare system as a whole. For example, we are already seeing a ‘brain drain’ in several states, with maternity wards having to close due to a shortage of doctors. Doctors and healthcare professionals simply do not want to work where abortion bans are strict, says Kristina Castell of RFSU.

2. A more impoverished and unsafe world with Trump's foreign policy

Many have expressed concerns about Donald Trump's security policy in the post-election debate. What will happen in the ongoing wars in Gaza and Ukraine? However, as the president-elect takes control of foreign policy, more is at stake globally.

Among the first things Donald Trump will do in the White House is to reinstate the Global Gag Rule – a policy that prohibits non-US organisations that receive US aid for global health from providing information or abortion-related health services, regardless of how the specific activity is funded. This time, the Global Gag Rule will likely be expanded to apply to all US aid. Already, several International Planned Parenthood Federation (IPPF) member organisations have raised the alarm that a new Gag Rule would cut off access to contraception and stop access to sexual health services for millions of people.

In September, RFSU warned of what could happen if Donald Trump implements Project 2025. The project contains far-reaching plans to slash US aid and weaken the entire UN system and the World Health Organisation (WHO). The consequences worldwide are unimaginable in a time of crisis and conflict.
– Trump will cut off US aid to the UN's SRHR agency (UNFPA) and pursue policies at the UN that are hostile to women's rights, SRHR, and LGBTI rights. We predict increased maternal mortality, new HIV infections, and increased oppression of LGBTI people worldwide, says Ingela Holmertz.

3. The European Unions role in sexual and reproductive health and rights is more important than ever

– There will be a huge gap when the US cuts aid and withdraws from the UN system. Therefore, the EU now needs to step up and take greater responsibility, both in terms of funding for human rights, gender equality, and SRHR, as well as when it comes to defending the UN and global cooperation. The Swedish government must push for this to happen, says Sara Österlund, political advisor in development policy at RFSU.

Politicians in Brussels also need to coordinate research, information, and other concrete measures to counteract the consequences of Project 2025's ideas. But above all, they need to invest money.

– The EU and its member states must be prepared to fill major funding gaps, including for humanitarian action. They simply have to take the initiative for a crisis fund, says Sara Österlund.

4. RFSU – a strong membership movement that is ready to mobilise

However dark it may feel right now, we must not lose hope. RFSU is currently working to encourage Swedish and European governments to defend sexual and reproductive health and rights worldwide. Intensive work is also underway to secure funding for cooperation with our partners around the globe and to work together within our federation, IPPF, to counteract the consequences of Trump's policies, says Ingela Holmertz.

In Sweden, RFSU continues to mobilise and spread the word.
– We have thousands of members who are passionate about defending democracy and human rights. We stand up for everyones freedom to decide over their body and sexuality. And our movement is growing, Ingela Holmertz reminds us.

– Our founder, Elise Ottesen-Jensen, also known as "Ottar", began her work against a strong headwind. With creativity, perseverance, and courage, RFSU created change against the odds. Now that strong winds are blowing again, we will fight even harder and find ways to turn things around for the better, she says.